Vol. II Templates SENSITIVITY-ANALYSES Available now
The sensitivity tables your IC actually asks for.
Pre-built sensitivity grids covering the four variable combinations every CRE investment committee asks about – rent growth × exit cap, leverage × DSCR, hold period × IRR, opex inflation × NOI. Drop-in companion to any acquisitions model.
Definition
What it is
4 grids
Rent growth × exit cap, leverage × DSCR, hold × IRR, opex inflation × NOI.
Live
Linked to a single inputs tab. No hardcoded values; everything traces.
$19
$27 retail. 14-day refund.
Audience
Who this is for
Acquisitions analysts
Pre-built sensitivity tables drop into IC memos without rebuilding them per deal. Same range conventions across the team.
Asset management
Quarterly reforecast – quickly see how realized deviations from underwriting change projected IRR at hold-period end.
LP allocators
Quickly rerun a sponsor's projections against your own preferred ranges to see where the IRR sensitivity actually sits.
Lender credit
Stress-test borrower projections against committee-defined ranges. Standardize stress conventions across the portfolio.
Inclusion
What's in the file
- Rent growth × exit cap (output: project + equity IRR)
- Leverage × DSCR (output: refi sizing capacity)
- Hold period × IRR (output: optimal exit)
- Opex inflation × NOI (output: trailing NOI vs. proj)
- Single inputs tab linking all grids
- One-page output summary formatted for IC memos
Reference
FAQ
Standalone or companion to UW Workbook?
Both. The grids work as a standalone XLSX; they also bolt onto the UW Workbook as a linked extension with no duplicate inputs.
What about 3-variable sensitivities?
2-variable grids cover ~90% of IC-memo use cases. Multi-variable tornado charts are out of scope here; they live in the UW Workbook's full sensitivity tab.
Refund policy?
14-day refund if the file is materially different from what was described, corrupted, or not delivered correctly. Email support@valoreregistry.com.
Pricing
Pricing
Retail at release $27
Founders' price (first 14 days) $19
Single XLSX delivery. Free point-update releases for 12 months. Informational only – not investment advice.
Implementation
How to use Sensitivity Analyses
Six steps from base case to IC-ready downside framing. Plus practitioner tips on step-size discipline, why IRR is misleading, where cap-rate decompression drives IRR, and how to handle the downside cell honestly.
A. Six steps
- 1
Download the Sensitivity Analyses workbook
You receive an XLSX with multiple sensitivity grids: 2-variable matrices (cap rate × NOI; rate × LTC; exit year × exit cap), 1-variable swings, and a tornado-chart tab. Save as
Sensitivity_<Deal>_<YYYY-MM>.xlsx. - 2
Set the base case from your UW Workbook
Inputs: base NOI · base cap rate · base proceeds · base hold period · base equity multiple · base IRR. The base case should match exactly what the UW Workbook produces — sensitivities are deviations from base, not a separate underwrite.
- 3
Set the variable step sizes
Default steps: cap rate ±25bps, NOI ±5%, rate ±50bps, LTC ±5%, exit year ±1yr, exit cap rate ±25bps. Widen for value-add deals where variance is larger; tighten for stabilized deals where variance is smaller. The step-size cell drives every matrix.
- 4
Read the 2-variable matrices for downside framing
Cap rate × NOI matrix: rows are NOI scenarios, columns are cap rate scenarios; cells show value or IRR. The diagonal moving down-and-right is the compounding downside. Bring this into the IC memo when arguing the downside case.
- 5
Build the tornado chart for the IC presentation
The Tornado tab orders sensitivities by impact magnitude: which variable swings IRR the most? Usually exit cap rate first, then NOI, then hold period, then rate. Tornado is the most-watched chart in IC presentations — make sure the underlying step sizes are realistic.
- 6
Export the LP / IC downside framing
Save the cap-rate × NOI matrix + the tornado chart as a 2-page PDF for the IC packet. Pair with the IC Memo recommendation — the sensitivity work is the "show your work" for the recommendation paragraph.
B. Practitioner tips
- Step sizes matter more than you think. A 100bp cap-rate range looks reasonable; a 50bp range looks plausible. Don't default to 25bp without thinking about whether the deal is genuinely that tight.
- IRR is the most-watched output but the most-misleading sensitivity variable. Equity multiple is more honest because it doesn't compound through time.
- Cap-rate decompression at exit is the single biggest IRR driver in most CRE models. If your tornado doesn't put exit cap on top, double-check the step size — likely too narrow.
- Rate sensitivity matters less than people think once IO period is correctly modeled. Most CRE deals are flat-rate floating debt; the move is in spread, not in the index.
- Don't hide downside scenarios in the appendix. LPs read the downside cell first; making them hunt for it signals you don't want them to see it.
- Pair sensitivity with stress-test: cap-rate × NOI is "what if variables move" — stress-test is "what if specific bad things happen" (lease-up slip, refi-rate spike, sale-year delay). Different framings, both useful.
C. Scope & limits
- Not a stochastic / Monte Carlo model. Sensitivity is grid-based and deterministic; for probability-weighted outcomes you need a different tool.
- Not for portfolio-level sensitivities. Single-asset analysis only. Portfolio cross-correlation needs separate treatment.
- Doesn't handle non-financial sensitivities (entitlement risk, construction delay risk, sponsor-execution risk) — those need narrative treatment in the IC memo, not numerical sensitivity.
- Output is a function of input step sizes — small step sizes produce small-looking sensitivities. Always disclose the step size in the IC memo footnote.
D. Pairs with
-
Data Analyst
Agent (forthcoming Q3 2026)
Builds custom sensitivity matrices on request (e.g. "show me NOI vs operating expense ratio across the 3 lender boxes").
-
Credit Analyst
Agent (forthcoming Q3 2026)
Reads the sensitivity output; references the cap-rate × NOI downside in the screening memo + IC memo risk section.
-
UW Workbook
Template (available now)
The base case must match the UW Workbook. Sensitivities are deviations from base, not a separate underwrite.
-
Cash Flow Projection
Template (available now)
For 10-year multi-period sensitivities (exit year × exit cap × refi window), use the Cash Flow Projection tab instead — this template is for going-in sensitivity.
-
Memo Drafter
Skill (forthcoming Q3 2026)
Pulls the sensitivity matrix into the IC memo's risk section automatically.
Quarterly refresh. Free re-download for 12 months from purchase.
14-day refund if the file is materially different from what was described, corrupted, or not delivered correctly.
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